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Persija Jakarta vs Binh Duong — AFC Cup 2018

Persija Jakarta
Persija Jakarta
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Binh Duong
Binh Duong
2/26/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Stadion Utama Gelora Bung Karno (Jakarta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Persija Jakarta54%
×Draw24%
Binh Duong22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Persija Jakarta
1.69
Binh Duong
0.97

Persija Jakarta creates 74% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Persija Jakarta
2.57
Binh Duong
0.80

allows per match

Persija Jakarta
1.14
Binh Duong
0.80

finishing

Persija Jakarta+0.00on par
Binh Duong+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persija Jakarta ↓

Binh Duong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Persija Jakarta or draw
78%
Persija Jakarta or Binh Duong
76%
Draw or Binh Duong
46%

Winning margin

Persija Jakarta wins by 2+
30%
Binh Duong wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Persija Jakarta 1+ goals
82%
Persija Jakarta 2+ goals
50%
Persija Jakarta 3+ goals
24%
Binh Duong 1+ goals
62%
Binh Duong 2+ goals
25%
Binh Duong 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Persija Jakarta (draw refunded)
71%
Binh Duong (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persija Jakarta at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Binh Duong away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persija Jakarta attack 2.57 + Binh Duong defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Binh Duong attack 0.80 + Persija Jakarta defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Persija Jakarta scores more
54%
level
24%
Binh Duong scores more
22%

Persija Jakarta at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Persija Jakarta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Persija Jakarta vs Binh Duong

Persija Jakarta and Binh Duong drew 0-0 in AFC Cup on February 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Utama Gelora Bung Karno (Jakarta).