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Binh Duong vs Persija Jakarta — AFC Cup 2018

Binh Duong
Binh Duong
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Persija Jakarta
Persija Jakarta
5/1/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Sân vận động Gò Đậu (Go Dau Stadium) (Thủ Dầu Một (Thu Dau Mot))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Binh Duong56%
×Draw21%
Persija Jakarta22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binh Duong
2.03
Persija Jakarta
1.21

Binh Duong creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Binh Duong
2.20
Persija Jakarta
1.43

allows per match

Binh Duong
1.00
Persija Jakarta
1.86

finishing

Binh Duong+0.00on par
Persija Jakarta+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Duong ↓

Persija Jakarta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Binh Duong or draw
78%
Binh Duong or Persija Jakarta
79%
Draw or Persija Jakarta
44%

Winning margin

Binh Duong wins by 2+
33%
Persija Jakarta wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Binh Duong 1+ goals
87%
Binh Duong 2+ goals
60%
Binh Duong 3+ goals
33%
Persija Jakarta 1+ goals
70%
Persija Jakarta 2+ goals
34%
Persija Jakarta 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Binh Duong (draw refunded)
71%
Persija Jakarta (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Duong at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Persija Jakarta away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Duong attack 2.20 + Persija Jakarta defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.03

Persija Jakarta attack 1.43 + Binh Duong defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Binh Duong scores more
56%
level
21%
Persija Jakarta scores more
22%

Binh Duong at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Binh Duong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Binh Duong vs Persija Jakarta

Binh Duong beat Persija Jakarta 3-1 in AFC Cup on May 1, 2019.

The match was played at Sân vận động Gò Đậu (Go Dau Stadium) (Thủ Dầu Một (Thu Dau Mot)).