Persepolis FC 1–1 Pakhtakor: Result & Stats

Persepolis FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pakhtakor

3/5/2019

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Persepolis FC52%

×Draw27%

Pakhtakor21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persepolis FCExpected goals in this matchPakhtakor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.79

Persepolis FC

1.41

Pakhtakor

0.79

Persepolis FC creates 78% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 23 away

1.47

creates per match

0.78

0.80

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Persepolis FC

1.47

Pakhtakor

0.78

allows per match

Persepolis FC

0.80

Pakhtakor

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Pakhtakor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw

79%

Persepolis FC or Pakhtakor

73%

Draw or Pakhtakor

48%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

26%

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

76%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

41%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

17%

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

55%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

19%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

71%

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.47 + Pakhtakor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Pakhtakor attack 0.78 + Persepolis FC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Persepolis FC scores more

52%

level

27%

Pakhtakor scores more

21%

Persepolis FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff