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Pakhtakor vs Persepolis FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
5/6/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Pakhtakor42%
×Draw27%
Persepolis FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor
1.39
Persepolis FC
1.16

Pakhtakor creates 20% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 28 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor
1.52
Persepolis FC
0.89

allows per match

Pakhtakor
1.43
Persepolis FC
1.25

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par
Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Persepolis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw
69%
Pakhtakor or Persepolis FC
73%
Draw or Persepolis FC
58%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+
20%
Persepolis FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals
75%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
40%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
16%
Persepolis FC 1+ goals
69%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
32%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
57%
Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 1.52 + Persepolis FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39

Persepolis FC attack 0.89 + Pakhtakor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pakhtakor scores more
42%
level
27%
Persepolis FC scores more
31%

Pakhtakor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Pakhtakor 1–0 Persepolis FC

Pakhtakor beat Persepolis FC 1-0 in AFC Champions League on May 6, 2019.

The match was played at Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium in Tashkent.