Persepolis FC vs Padideh Khorasan

Persepolis FC

CANC

15:30

Padideh Khorasan

5/25/2022

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 29Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Persepolis FC53%

×Draw29%

Padideh Khorasan18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persepolis FCExpected goals in this matchPadideh Khorasan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.61

Persepolis FC

1.29

Padideh Khorasan

0.61

Persepolis FC creates 111% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 58 away

1.44

creates per match

0.72

0.51

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Persepolis FC

1.44

Padideh Khorasan

0.72

allows per match

Persepolis FC

0.51

Padideh Khorasan

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Padideh Khorasan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw

82%

Persepolis FC or Padideh Khorasan

71%

Draw or Padideh Khorasan

47%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

25%

Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

72%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

37%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

14%

Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals

46%

Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals

13%

Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

75%

Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.51 · 115 matches

Padideh Khorasan away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.44 + Padideh Khorasan defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

Padideh Khorasan attack 0.72 + Persepolis FC defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Persepolis FC scores more

53%

level

29%

Padideh Khorasan scores more

18%

Persepolis FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff