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Padideh Khorasan vs Persepolis FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Padideh Khorasan
Padideh Khorasan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
4/3/2021Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 19Imam Reza Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Padideh Khorasan28%
×Draw32%
Persepolis FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padideh Khorasan
0.83
Persepolis FC
1.06

Persepolis FC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 116 away

creates per match

Padideh Khorasan
1.00
Persepolis FC
1.39

allows per match

Padideh Khorasan
0.73
Persepolis FC
0.66

finishing

Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par
Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padideh Khorasan ↓

Persepolis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Padideh Khorasan or draw
60%
Padideh Khorasan or Persepolis FC
68%
Draw or Persepolis FC
72%

Winning margin

Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+
9%
Persepolis FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals
56%
Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals
20%
Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals
5%
Persepolis FC 1+ goals
65%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
29%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)
41%
Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padideh Khorasan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 60 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.66 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padideh Khorasan attack 1.00 + Persepolis FC defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.83

Persepolis FC attack 1.39 + Padideh Khorasan defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Padideh Khorasan scores more
28%
level
32%
Persepolis FC scores more
40%

Persepolis FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Padideh Khorasan 1–1 Persepolis FC

Padideh Khorasan and Persepolis FC drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Imam Reza Stadium in Mashhad.