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Persepolis FC vs Mes Rafsanjan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
6/1/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 30Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Persepolis FC50%
×Draw29%
Mes Rafsanjan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Persepolis FC
1.28
Mes Rafsanjan
0.72

Persepolis FC creates 78% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 86 away

creates per match

Persepolis FC
1.44
Mes Rafsanjan
0.93

allows per match

Persepolis FC
0.51
Mes Rafsanjan
1.13

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par
Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Mes Rafsanjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw
79%
Persepolis FC or Mes Rafsanjan
71%
Draw or Mes Rafsanjan
50%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+
23%
Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals
72%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
37%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
14%
Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
51%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
16%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
70%
Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.51 · 115 matches

Mes Rafsanjan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.13 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.44 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.28

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.93 + Persepolis FC defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Persepolis FC scores more
50%
level
29%
Mes Rafsanjan scores more
21%

Persepolis FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Persepolis FC 1–0 Mes Rafsanjan

Persepolis FC beat Mes Rafsanjan 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Teheran.