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Mes Rafsanjan vs Persepolis FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
5/1/2025Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 28Shohada Mes Rafsanjan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan25%
×Draw30%
Persepolis FC45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
0.79
Persepolis FC
1.17

Persepolis FC creates 48% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 116 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.91
Persepolis FC
1.39

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.94
Persepolis FC
0.66

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Persepolis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
55%
Mes Rafsanjan or Persepolis FC
70%
Draw or Persepolis FC
75%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
8%
Persepolis FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
55%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
19%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
5%
Persepolis FC 1+ goals
69%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
33%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
36%
Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.94 · 85 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.66 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.91 + Persepolis FC defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.79

Persepolis FC attack 1.39 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
25%
level
30%
Persepolis FC scores more
45%

Persepolis FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Rafsanjan vs Persepolis FC

Persepolis FC beat Mes Rafsanjan 3-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on May 1, 2025.

The match was played at Shohada Mes Rafsanjan Stadium in Rafsanjan.