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Persepolis FC vs Machine Sazi FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Machine Sazi FC
Machine Sazi FC
1/30/2021Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 13Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Persepolis FC58%
×Draw27%
Machine Sazi FC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Persepolis FC
1.42
Machine Sazi FC
0.57

Persepolis FC creates 149% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 45 away

creates per match

Persepolis FC
1.44
Machine Sazi FC
0.64

allows per match

Persepolis FC
0.51
Machine Sazi FC
1.40

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par
Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Machine Sazi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw
85%
Persepolis FC or Machine Sazi FC
73%
Draw or Machine Sazi FC
42%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+
29%
Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals
76%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
41%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
17%
Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals
43%
Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals
11%
Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
80%
Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.51 · 115 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.44 + Machine Sazi FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.64 + Persepolis FC defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Persepolis FC scores more
58%
level
27%
Machine Sazi FC scores more
15%

Persepolis FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Persepolis FC 2–1 Machine Sazi FC

Persepolis FC beat Machine Sazi FC 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on January 30, 2021.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Teheran.