Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Machine Sazi FC vs Persepolis FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Machine Sazi FC
Machine Sazi FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
7/10/2020Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 24Bonyan Diesel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Machine Sazi FC21%
×Draw29%
Persepolis FC50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machine Sazi FC
0.74
Persepolis FC
1.30

Persepolis FC creates 76% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 116 away

creates per match

Machine Sazi FC
0.82
Persepolis FC
1.39

allows per match

Machine Sazi FC
1.22
Persepolis FC
0.66

finishing

Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par
Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machine Sazi FC ↓

Persepolis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Machine Sazi FC or draw
50%
Machine Sazi FC or Persepolis FC
71%
Draw or Persepolis FC
79%

Winning margin

Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+
6%
Persepolis FC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals
52%
Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals
17%
Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals
4%
Persepolis FC 1+ goals
73%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
37%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)
30%
Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machine Sazi FC at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.66 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.82 + Persepolis FC defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.74

Persepolis FC attack 1.39 + Machine Sazi FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Machine Sazi FC scores more
21%
level
29%
Persepolis FC scores more
50%

Persepolis FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Machine Sazi FC vs Persepolis FC

Persepolis FC beat Machine Sazi FC 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on July 10, 2020.

The match was played at Bonyan Diesel Stadium in Tabriz.