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Persepolis FC vs Istiqlol — AFC Champions League 2018

Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Istiqlol
Istiqlol
10/24/2023AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group E - 3Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Persepolis FC56%
×Draw25%
Istiqlol19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Persepolis FC
1.61
Istiqlol
0.81

Persepolis FC creates 99% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 12 away

creates per match

Persepolis FC
1.47
Istiqlol
0.83

allows per match

Persepolis FC
0.80
Istiqlol
1.75

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par
Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Istiqlol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw
81%
Persepolis FC or Istiqlol
75%
Draw or Istiqlol
44%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+
30%
Istiqlol wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals
80%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
48%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
22%
Istiqlol 1+ goals
56%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
19%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
75%
Istiqlol (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.47 + Istiqlol defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.61

Istiqlol attack 0.83 + Persepolis FC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Persepolis FC scores more
56%
level
25%
Istiqlol scores more
19%

Persepolis FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Persepolis FC vs Istiqlol

Persepolis FC beat Istiqlol 2-0 in AFC Champions League on October 24, 2023.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Teheran.