Istiqlol 1–1 Persepolis FC: Result & Stats

Istiqlol

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Persepolis FC

11/7/2023

AFC Champions League · Group E - 4Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Istiqlol39%

×Draw29%

Persepolis FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IstiqlolExpected goals in this matchPersepolis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.04

Istiqlol

1.18

Persepolis FC

1.04

Istiqlol creates 13% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 28 away

1.10

creates per match

0.89

1.20

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Istiqlol

1.10

Persepolis FC

0.89

allows per match

Istiqlol

1.20

Persepolis FC

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Persepolis FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw

68%

Istiqlol or Persepolis FC

71%

Draw or Persepolis FC

61%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+

17%

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals

69%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

33%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

12%

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

65%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

28%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

55%

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 1.10 + Persepolis FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Persepolis FC attack 0.89 + Istiqlol defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Istiqlol scores more

39%

level

29%

Persepolis FC scores more

32%

Istiqlol at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff