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Persepolis FC vs Havadar — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Havadar
Havadar
12/9/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 12Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Persepolis FC53%
×Draw28%
Havadar19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Persepolis FC
1.40
Havadar
0.72

Persepolis FC creates 94% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 59 away

creates per match

Persepolis FC
1.44
Havadar
0.93

allows per match

Persepolis FC
0.51
Havadar
1.36

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par
Havadar+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Havadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw
81%
Persepolis FC or Havadar
72%
Draw or Havadar
47%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+
26%
Havadar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals
75%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
41%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
17%
Havadar 1+ goals
51%
Havadar 2+ goals
16%
Havadar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
73%
Havadar (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.51 · 115 matches

Havadar away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.36 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.44 + Havadar defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.40

Havadar attack 0.93 + Persepolis FC defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Persepolis FC scores more
53%
level
28%
Havadar scores more
19%

Persepolis FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Persepolis FC 1–0 Havadar

Persepolis FC beat Havadar 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Teheran.