Havadar 0–5 Persepolis FC: Result & Stats

Havadar

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Persepolis FC

1/1/2025

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 15Shahr-e Qods Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Havadar18%

×Draw29%

Persepolis FC53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HavadarExpected goals in this matchPersepolis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.63

1.29

Havadar

0.63

Persepolis FC

1.29

Persepolis FC creates 105% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 116 away

0.59

creates per match

1.39

1.19

allows per match

0.66

creates per match

Havadar

0.59

Persepolis FC

1.39

allows per match

Havadar

1.19

Persepolis FC

0.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Persepolis FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–119%

0–212%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Havadar or draw

47%

Havadar or Persepolis FC

71%

Draw or Persepolis FC

82%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+

5%

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals

47%

Havadar 2+ goals

13%

Havadar 3+ goals

3%

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

72%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

37%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)

26%

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.66 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 0.59 + Persepolis FC defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.63

Persepolis FC attack 1.39 + Havadar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Havadar scores more

18%

level

29%

Persepolis FC scores more

53%

Persepolis FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff