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Persepolis FC vs Al Taawon — AFC Champions League 2018

Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Taawon
Al Taawon
9/15/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Education City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Persepolis FC45%
×Draw27%
Al Taawon28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Persepolis FC
1.38
Al Taawon
1.04

Persepolis FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 7 away

creates per match

Persepolis FC
1.47
Al Taawon
1.29

allows per match

Persepolis FC
0.80
Al Taawon
1.29

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par
Al Taawon+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Al Taawon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw
72%
Persepolis FC or Al Taawon
73%
Draw or Al Taawon
55%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+
21%
Al Taawon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals
75%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
40%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
16%
Al Taawon 1+ goals
65%
Al Taawon 2+ goals
28%
Al Taawon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
61%
Al Taawon (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Al Taawon away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.47 + Al Taawon defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al Taawon attack 1.29 + Persepolis FC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Persepolis FC scores more
45%
level
27%
Al Taawon scores more
28%

Persepolis FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Persepolis FC vs Al Taawon

Persepolis FC beat Al Taawon 1-0 in AFC Champions League on September 15, 2020.

The match was played at Education City Stadium in Ar-Rayyan.