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Al Taawon vs Persepolis FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Al Taawon
Al Taawon
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
9/18/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Education City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al Taawon34%
×Draw26%
Persepolis FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taawon
1.29
Persepolis FC
1.45

Persepolis FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 28 away

creates per match

Al Taawon
1.33
Persepolis FC
0.89

allows per match

Al Taawon
2.00
Persepolis FC
1.25

finishing

Al Taawon+0.00on par
Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taawon ↓

Persepolis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Taawon or draw
59%
Al Taawon or Persepolis FC
74%
Draw or Persepolis FC
66%

Winning margin

Al Taawon wins by 2+
15%
Persepolis FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Al Taawon 1+ goals
72%
Al Taawon 2+ goals
37%
Al Taawon 3+ goals
14%
Persepolis FC 1+ goals
77%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
42%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al Taawon (draw refunded)
45%
Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taawon at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taawon attack 1.33 + Persepolis FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Persepolis FC attack 0.89 + Al Taawon defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Taawon scores more
34%
level
26%
Persepolis FC scores more
41%

Persepolis FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Taawon vs Persepolis FC

Persepolis FC beat Al Taawon 1-0 in AFC Champions League on September 18, 2020.

The match was played at Education City Stadium in Ar-Rayyan.