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Persepolis FC vs Al-Nassr — AFC Champions League 2018

Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr
2/17/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Stage - 8Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Persepolis FC37%
×Draw28%
Al-Nassr35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Persepolis FC
1.16
Al-Nassr
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 23 away

creates per match

Persepolis FC
1.48
Al-Nassr
1.52

allows per match

Persepolis FC
0.74
Al-Nassr
0.83

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par
Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Al-Nassr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw
65%
Persepolis FC or Al-Nassr
72%
Draw or Al-Nassr
63%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+
15%
Al-Nassr wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals
69%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
32%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
11%
Al-Nassr 1+ goals
68%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
31%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
51%
Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

Al-Nassr away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.48 + Al-Nassr defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.16

Al-Nassr attack 1.52 + Persepolis FC defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Persepolis FC scores more
37%
level
28%
Al-Nassr scores more
35%

Persepolis FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Persepolis FC vs Al-Nassr

Persepolis FC and Al-Nassr drew 0-0 in AFC Champions League on February 17, 2025.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Teheran.