Persepolis FC 0–2 Al-Nassr: Result & Stats

Persepolis FC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Nassr

Mohammed Qasem 72'

D. Esmaeilifar 62' (OG)

9/19/2023

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Persepolis FC36%

×Draw28%

Al-Nassr36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persepolis FCExpected goals in this matchAl-Nassr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.16

Persepolis FC

1.17

Al-Nassr

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

1.50

creates per match

1.52

0.79

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Persepolis FC

1.50

Al-Nassr

1.52

allows per match

Persepolis FC

0.79

Al-Nassr

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Al-Nassr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw

64%

Persepolis FC or Al-Nassr

72%

Draw or Al-Nassr

64%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

15%

Al-Nassr wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

69%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

33%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

11%

Al-Nassr 1+ goals

69%

Al-Nassr 2+ goals

32%

Al-Nassr 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

50%

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Al-Nassr away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.50 + Al-Nassr defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Al-Nassr attack 1.52 + Persepolis FC defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Persepolis FC scores more

36%

level

28%

Al-Nassr scores more

36%

Persepolis FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

Mohammed Qasem

Al-Nassr · D

7.9

Match Events

8'

18'

45+2'

52'

52'

55'

62'

D. EsmaeilifarOwn goal

72'

Mohammed Qasem↳ Abdulrahman Ghareeb

73'

O. Alishah← A. Nemati

73'

S. Rafiei← M. Omri

80'

Sami Al Naji← M. Brozović

85'

Khalid Al Ghannam← S. Mané

85'

Nawaf Boushal← Sultan Al Ghannam

87'

S. Asadbeigi← S. Sadeghi

87'

Y. Salmani← S. Zahedi

90+1'

Meshari Al Nemer← Cristiano Ronaldo

90+1'

Ali Al Hassan← Otávio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PersepolisAl-Nassr

Overview

42%Possession58%

2Total Shots10

1Corners5

8Fouls11

Shots

2Total Shots10

0On Target5

1Off Target2

1Blocked3

1Inside Box8

1Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

389Total Passes537

309Accurate Passes463

79%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

5Offsides1