Persepam Madura Utd 0–0 Bhayangkara FC

Persepam Madura Utd

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bhayangkara FC

8/25/2023

Liga 1 · Round 10Stadion Gelora Bangkalan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Persepam Madura Utd65%

×Draw28%

Bhayangkara FC7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persepam Madura UtdExpected goals in this matchBhayangkara FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.25

Persepam Madura Utd

1.33

Bhayangkara FC

0.25

Persepam Madura Utd creates 432% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

0.50

0.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Persepam Madura Utd

0.67

Bhayangkara FC

0.50

allows per match

Persepam Madura Utd

0.00

Bhayangkara FC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persepam Madura Utd+0.00on par

Bhayangkara FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No84
Yes16

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepam Madura Utd ↓

Bhayangkara FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–027%

1–17%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (27%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Persepam Madura Utd or draw

93%

Persepam Madura Utd or Bhayangkara FC

72%

Draw or Bhayangkara FC

35%

Winning margin

Persepam Madura Utd wins by 2+

33%

Bhayangkara FC wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Persepam Madura Utd 1+ goals

74%

Persepam Madura Utd 2+ goals

38%

Persepam Madura Utd 3+ goals

15%

Bhayangkara FC 1+ goals

22%

Bhayangkara FC 2+ goals

3%

Bhayangkara FC 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Persepam Madura Utd (draw refunded)

90%

Bhayangkara FC (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

9%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepam Madura Utd at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Bhayangkara FC away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepam Madura Utd attack 0.67 + Bhayangkara FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bhayangkara FC attack 0.50 + Persepam Madura Utd defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Persepam Madura Utd scores more

65%

level

28%

Bhayangkara FC scores more

7%

Persepam Madura Utd at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Persepam Madura Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff