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Bhayangkara FC vs Persepam Madura Utd — Liga 1 2025

Bhayangkara FC
Bhayangkara FC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Persepam Madura Utd
Persepam Madura Utd
2/20/2023Liga 1Liga 1 · Round 26Stadion Wibawa Mukti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bhayangkara FC83%
×Draw11%
Persepam Madura Utd6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bhayangkara FC
3.40
Persepam Madura Utd
0.90

Bhayangkara FC creates 278% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bhayangkara FC
3.80
Persepam Madura Utd
1.00

allows per match

Bhayangkara FC
0.80
Persepam Madura Utd
3.00

finishing

Bhayangkara FC+0.00on par
Persepam Madura Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bhayangkara FC ↓

Persepam Madura Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Bhayangkara FC or draw
94%
Bhayangkara FC or Persepam Madura Utd
89%
Draw or Persepam Madura Utd
17%

Winning margin

Bhayangkara FC wins by 2+
66%
Persepam Madura Utd wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bhayangkara FC 1+ goals
96%
Bhayangkara FC 2+ goals
84%
Bhayangkara FC 3+ goals
64%
Persepam Madura Utd 1+ goals
59%
Persepam Madura Utd 2+ goals
23%
Persepam Madura Utd 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bhayangkara FC (draw refunded)
93%
Persepam Madura Utd (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bhayangkara FC at home — creates 3.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Persepam Madura Utd away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bhayangkara FC attack 3.80 + Persepam Madura Utd defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.40

Persepam Madura Utd attack 1.00 + Bhayangkara FC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Bhayangkara FC scores more
83%
level
11%
Persepam Madura Utd scores more
6%

Bhayangkara FC at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Bhayangkara FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bhayangkara FC vs Persepam Madura Utd

Bhayangkara FC beat Persepam Madura Utd 4-0 in Liga 1 on February 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Wibawa Mukti in Cikarang.