Pêro Pinheiro 1–0 Oliveira Hospital: Result & Stats

Pêro Pinheiro

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oliveira Hospital

1/7/2024

Liga 3 · Round 15Estadio do Sport União Sintrense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pêro Pinheiro37%

×Draw25%

Oliveira Hospital37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pêro PinheiroExpected goals in this matchOliveira Hospital

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

Pêro Pinheiro

1.43

Oliveira Hospital

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 56 away

1.29

creates per match

0.93

1.93

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Pêro Pinheiro

1.29

Oliveira Hospital

0.93

allows per match

Pêro Pinheiro

1.93

Oliveira Hospital

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pêro Pinheiro ↓

Oliveira Hospital →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Pêro Pinheiro or draw

63%

Pêro Pinheiro or Oliveira Hospital

75%

Draw or Oliveira Hospital

63%

Winning margin

Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+

18%

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals

76%

Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals

42%

Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals

17%

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals

76%

Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals

42%

Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)

50%

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pêro Pinheiro at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pêro Pinheiro attack 1.29 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Oliveira Hospital attack 0.93 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pêro Pinheiro scores more

37%

level

25%

Oliveira Hospital scores more

37%

Pêro Pinheiro at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pêro Pinheiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff