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Oliveira Hospital vs Pêro Pinheiro — Liga 3 2021

Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pêro Pinheiro
Pêro Pinheiro
5/4/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 10Estádio Municipal de Tábua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Oliveira Hospital59%
×Draw23%
Pêro Pinheiro17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oliveira Hospital
1.76
Pêro Pinheiro
0.83

Oliveira Hospital creates 112% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 14 away

creates per match

Oliveira Hospital
1.38
Pêro Pinheiro
0.43

allows per match

Oliveira Hospital
1.23
Pêro Pinheiro
2.14

finishing

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par
Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveira Hospital ↓

Pêro Pinheiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Oliveira Hospital or draw
83%
Oliveira Hospital or Pêro Pinheiro
77%
Draw or Pêro Pinheiro
41%

Winning margin

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
34%
Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
83%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
52%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
26%
Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals
56%
Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals
20%
Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
77%
Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveira Hospital at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

Pêro Pinheiro away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.38 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.76

Pêro Pinheiro attack 0.43 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Oliveira Hospital scores more
59%
level
23%
Pêro Pinheiro scores more
17%

Oliveira Hospital at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Oliveira Hospital 2–0 Pêro Pinheiro

Oliveira Hospital beat Pêro Pinheiro 2-0 in Liga 3 on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Tábua in Tábua.