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Pêro Pinheiro vs Caldas — Liga 3 2021

Pêro Pinheiro
Pêro Pinheiro
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Caldas
Caldas
1/21/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 17Estadio do Sport União Sintrense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pêro Pinheiro34%
×Draw25%
Caldas42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pêro Pinheiro
1.36
Caldas
1.54

Caldas creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 70 away

creates per match

Pêro Pinheiro
1.29
Caldas
1.16

allows per match

Pêro Pinheiro
1.93
Caldas
1.43

finishing

Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par
Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pêro Pinheiro ↓

Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pêro Pinheiro or draw
58%
Pêro Pinheiro or Caldas
75%
Draw or Caldas
66%

Winning margin

Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+
15%
Caldas wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals
74%
Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals
39%
Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals
16%
Caldas 1+ goals
79%
Caldas 2+ goals
45%
Caldas 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)
45%
Caldas (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pêro Pinheiro at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

Caldas away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pêro Pinheiro attack 1.29 + Caldas defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Caldas attack 1.16 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pêro Pinheiro scores more
34%
level
25%
Caldas scores more
42%

Caldas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Pêro Pinheiro 1–2 Caldas

Caldas beat Pêro Pinheiro 2-1 in Liga 3 on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio do Sport União Sintrense in Sintra.