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Caldas vs Pêro Pinheiro — Liga 3 2021

Caldas
Caldas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Pêro Pinheiro
Pêro Pinheiro
10/8/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 8Campo da Mata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Caldas58%
×Draw24%
Pêro Pinheiro18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caldas
1.70
Pêro Pinheiro
0.82

Caldas creates 107% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 14 away

creates per match

Caldas
1.26
Pêro Pinheiro
0.43

allows per match

Caldas
1.21
Pêro Pinheiro
2.14

finishing

Caldas+0.00on par
Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldas ↓

Pêro Pinheiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Caldas or draw
82%
Caldas or Pêro Pinheiro
76%
Draw or Pêro Pinheiro
42%

Winning margin

Caldas wins by 2+
32%
Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Caldas 1+ goals
82%
Caldas 2+ goals
51%
Caldas 3+ goals
24%
Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals
56%
Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals
20%
Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Caldas (draw refunded)
76%
Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldas at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 70 matches

Pêro Pinheiro away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldas attack 1.26 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.70

Pêro Pinheiro attack 0.43 + Caldas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Caldas scores more
58%
level
24%
Pêro Pinheiro scores more
18%

Caldas at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Caldas 1–2 Pêro Pinheiro

Pêro Pinheiro beat Caldas 2-1 in Liga 3 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Campo da Mata in Caldas da Rainha.