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Pêro Pinheiro vs 1º Dezembro — Taça de Portugal 2018

Pêro Pinheiro
Pêro Pinheiro
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
1º Dezembro
1º Dezembro
9/8/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundParque de Jogos Pardal Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pêro Pinheiro43%
×Draw22%
1º Dezembro35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pêro Pinheiro
1.82
1º Dezembro
1.63

Pêro Pinheiro creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Pêro Pinheiro
2.14
1º Dezembro
2.25

allows per match

Pêro Pinheiro
1.00
1º Dezembro
1.50

finishing

Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par
1º Dezembro+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pêro Pinheiro ↓

1º Dezembro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Pêro Pinheiro or draw
65%
Pêro Pinheiro or 1º Dezembro
78%
Draw or 1º Dezembro
57%

Winning margin

Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+
23%
1º Dezembro wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals
84%
Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals
54%
Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals
27%
1º Dezembro 1+ goals
80%
1º Dezembro 2+ goals
48%
1º Dezembro 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)
55%
1º Dezembro (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pêro Pinheiro at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

1º Dezembro away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pêro Pinheiro attack 2.14 + 1º Dezembro defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.82

1º Dezembro attack 2.25 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pêro Pinheiro scores more
43%
level
22%
1º Dezembro scores more
35%

Pêro Pinheiro at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pêro Pinheiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pêro Pinheiro vs 1º Dezembro

Pêro Pinheiro and 1º Dezembro drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Parque de Jogos Pardal Monteiro in Sintra.