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1º Dezembro vs Pêro Pinheiro — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round 2022

1º Dezembro
1º Dezembro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pêro Pinheiro
Pêro Pinheiro
5/28/2023Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion RoundCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Promotion Round - 5Campo Conde de Sucena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

1º Dezembro44%
×Draw30%
Pêro Pinheiro26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1º Dezembro
1.17
Pêro Pinheiro
0.83

1º Dezembro creates 41% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

1º Dezembro
1.33
Pêro Pinheiro
1.33

allows per match

1º Dezembro
0.33
Pêro Pinheiro
1.00

finishing

1º Dezembro+0.00on par
Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º Dezembro ↓

Pêro Pinheiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

1º Dezembro or draw
74%
1º Dezembro or Pêro Pinheiro
70%
Draw or Pêro Pinheiro
56%

Winning margin

1º Dezembro wins by 2+
19%
Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

1º Dezembro 1+ goals
69%
1º Dezembro 2+ goals
33%
1º Dezembro 3+ goals
11%
Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals
56%
Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals
20%
Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

1º Dezembro (draw refunded)
63%
Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º Dezembro at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Pêro Pinheiro away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º Dezembro attack 1.33 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Pêro Pinheiro attack 1.33 + 1º Dezembro defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

1º Dezembro scores more
44%
level
30%
Pêro Pinheiro scores more
26%

1º Dezembro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "1º Dezembro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1º Dezembro vs Pêro Pinheiro

1º Dezembro beat Pêro Pinheiro 1-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Conde de Sucena in Sintra.