1º Dezembro 1–0 Pêro Pinheiro: Result & Stats

1º Dezembro

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pêro Pinheiro

4/13/2024

Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 8Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

1º Dezembro56%

×Draw25%

Pêro Pinheiro19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1º DezembroExpected goals in this matchPêro Pinheiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.80

1º Dezembro

1.57

Pêro Pinheiro

0.80

1º Dezembro creates 96% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

0.43

1.18

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

1º Dezembro

1.00

Pêro Pinheiro

0.43

allows per match

1º Dezembro

1.18

Pêro Pinheiro

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1º Dezembro+0.00on par

Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º Dezembro ↓

Pêro Pinheiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

1º Dezembro or draw

81%

1º Dezembro or Pêro Pinheiro

75%

Draw or Pêro Pinheiro

44%

Winning margin

1º Dezembro wins by 2+

29%

Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

1º Dezembro 1+ goals

79%

1º Dezembro 2+ goals

46%

1º Dezembro 3+ goals

21%

Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals

55%

Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals

19%

Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

1º Dezembro (draw refunded)

74%

Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º Dezembro at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 44 matches

Pêro Pinheiro away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º Dezembro attack 1.00 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Pêro Pinheiro attack 0.43 + 1º Dezembro defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

1º Dezembro scores more

56%

level

25%

Pêro Pinheiro scores more

19%

1º Dezembro at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "1º Dezembro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff