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Ntopwa vs Blue Eagles — Super League 2026

Ntopwa
Ntopwa
FT
4 – 1
Blue Eagles
Blue Eagles
12/13/2020Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ntopwa31%
×Draw28%
Blue Eagles41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ntopwa
1.04
Blue Eagles
1.25

Blue Eagles creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 67 away

creates per match

Ntopwa
1.11
Blue Eagles
0.97

allows per match

Ntopwa
1.53
Blue Eagles
0.96

finishing

Ntopwa+0.00on par
Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ntopwa ↓

Blue Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ntopwa or draw
59%
Ntopwa or Blue Eagles
72%
Draw or Blue Eagles
69%

Winning margin

Ntopwa wins by 2+
12%
Blue Eagles wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ntopwa 1+ goals
65%
Ntopwa 2+ goals
28%
Ntopwa 3+ goals
9%
Blue Eagles 1+ goals
71%
Blue Eagles 2+ goals
36%
Blue Eagles 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ntopwa (draw refunded)
43%
Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ntopwa at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Blue Eagles away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ntopwa attack 1.11 + Blue Eagles defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Blue Eagles attack 0.97 + Ntopwa defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ntopwa scores more
31%
level
28%
Blue Eagles scores more
41%

Blue Eagles at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Ntopwa 4–1 Blue Eagles

Ntopwa beat Blue Eagles 4-1 in Super League on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Mpira Stadium in Blantyre.