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Blue Eagles vs Ntopwa — Super League 2026

Blue Eagles
Blue Eagles
FT
2 – 0
Ntopwa
Ntopwa
6/20/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Nankhaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Blue Eagles61%
×Draw23%
Ntopwa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blue Eagles
1.73
Ntopwa
0.75

Blue Eagles creates 131% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 16 away

creates per match

Blue Eagles
1.46
Ntopwa
0.69

allows per match

Blue Eagles
0.81
Ntopwa
2.00

finishing

Blue Eagles+0.00on par
Ntopwa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blue Eagles ↓

Ntopwa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Blue Eagles or draw
84%
Blue Eagles or Ntopwa
77%
Draw or Ntopwa
39%

Winning margin

Blue Eagles wins by 2+
35%
Ntopwa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Blue Eagles 1+ goals
82%
Blue Eagles 2+ goals
52%
Blue Eagles 3+ goals
25%
Ntopwa 1+ goals
53%
Ntopwa 2+ goals
17%
Ntopwa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
79%
Ntopwa (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blue Eagles at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Ntopwa away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blue Eagles attack 1.46 + Ntopwa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ntopwa attack 0.69 + Blue Eagles defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Blue Eagles scores more
61%
level
23%
Ntopwa scores more
16%

Blue Eagles at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Blue Eagles 2–0 Ntopwa

Blue Eagles beat Ntopwa 2-0 in Super League on June 20, 2021.

The match was played at Nankhaka Stadium in Lilongwe.