Perez Zeledon 0–2 Municipal Grecia: Result & Stats

Perez Zeledon

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Municipal Grecia

10/29/2023

League #162 · Apertura - 17Estadio Municipal Pérez Zeledón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Perez Zeledon33%

×Draw24%

Municipal Grecia43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Perez ZeledonExpected goals in this matchMunicipal Grecia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.69

Perez Zeledon

1.46

Municipal Grecia

1.69

Municipal Grecia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 13 away

1.46

creates per match

1.69

1.70

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Perez Zeledon

1.46

Municipal Grecia

1.69

allows per match

Perez Zeledon

1.70

Municipal Grecia

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perez Zeledon+0.00on par

Municipal Grecia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perez Zeledon ↓

Municipal Grecia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Perez Zeledon or draw

57%

Perez Zeledon or Municipal Grecia

76%

Draw or Municipal Grecia

67%

Winning margin

Perez Zeledon wins by 2+

15%

Municipal Grecia wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Perez Zeledon 1+ goals

77%

Perez Zeledon 2+ goals

43%

Perez Zeledon 3+ goals

18%

Municipal Grecia 1+ goals

82%

Municipal Grecia 2+ goals

50%

Municipal Grecia 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Perez Zeledon (draw refunded)

44%

Municipal Grecia (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perez Zeledon at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Municipal Grecia away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perez Zeledon attack 1.46 + Municipal Grecia defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Municipal Grecia attack 1.69 + Perez Zeledon defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Perez Zeledon scores more

33%

level

24%

Municipal Grecia scores more

43%

Municipal Grecia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Municipal Grecia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff