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Municipal Grecia vs Perez Zeledon — League #162 2026

Municipal Grecia
Municipal Grecia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Perez Zeledon
Perez Zeledon
2/17/2024League #162League #162 · Clausura - 8Estadio Rafael Bolaños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Municipal Grecia46%
×Draw27%
Perez Zeledon28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Municipal Grecia
1.41
Perez Zeledon
1.03

Municipal Grecia creates 37% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 38 away

creates per match

Municipal Grecia
1.23
Perez Zeledon
0.92

allows per match

Municipal Grecia
1.15
Perez Zeledon
1.58

finishing

Municipal Grecia+0.00on par
Perez Zeledon+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal Grecia ↓

Perez Zeledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Municipal Grecia or draw
72%
Municipal Grecia or Perez Zeledon
73%
Draw or Perez Zeledon
54%

Winning margin

Municipal Grecia wins by 2+
22%
Perez Zeledon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Municipal Grecia 1+ goals
76%
Municipal Grecia 2+ goals
41%
Municipal Grecia 3+ goals
17%
Perez Zeledon 1+ goals
64%
Perez Zeledon 2+ goals
28%
Perez Zeledon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Municipal Grecia (draw refunded)
62%
Perez Zeledon (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal Grecia at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Perez Zeledon away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal Grecia attack 1.23 + Perez Zeledon defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Perez Zeledon attack 0.92 + Municipal Grecia defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Municipal Grecia scores more
46%
level
27%
Perez Zeledon scores more
28%

Municipal Grecia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Municipal Grecia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #162: Municipal Grecia 2–1 Perez Zeledon

Municipal Grecia beat Perez Zeledon 2-1 in League #162 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Bolaños in Alajuela.