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Peresvet Podolsk vs Znamya Noginsk — Cup 2019

Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
8/11/2021CupCup · 3rd RoundStadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Peresvet Podolsk24%
×Draw25%
Znamya Noginsk50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peresvet Podolsk
1.00
Znamya Noginsk
1.56

Znamya Noginsk creates 56% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Peresvet Podolsk
1.00
Znamya Noginsk
1.80

allows per match

Peresvet Podolsk
1.33
Znamya Noginsk
1.00

finishing

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par
Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peresvet Podolsk ↓

Znamya Noginsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Peresvet Podolsk or draw
50%
Peresvet Podolsk or Znamya Noginsk
75%
Draw or Znamya Noginsk
76%

Winning margin

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
9%
Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
63%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
26%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
8%
Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
79%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
46%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
33%
Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peresvet Podolsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.00 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.80 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Peresvet Podolsk scores more
24%
level
25%
Znamya Noginsk scores more
50%

Znamya Noginsk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Znamya Noginsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Peresvet Podolsk 0–2 Znamya Noginsk

Znamya Noginsk beat Peresvet Podolsk 2-0 in Cup on August 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.