Peresvet Podolsk 3–0 Metallurg Lipetsk

Peresvet Podolsk

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Metallurg Lipetsk

11/9/2022

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Peresvet Podolsk30%

×Draw24%

Metallurg Lipetsk46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peresvet PodolskExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Lipetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.67

Peresvet Podolsk

1.31

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.67

Metallurg Lipetsk creates 27% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 53 away

1.29

creates per match

1.45

1.88

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Peresvet Podolsk

1.29

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.45

allows per match

Peresvet Podolsk

1.88

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peresvet Podolsk ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Peresvet Podolsk or draw

54%

Peresvet Podolsk or Metallurg Lipetsk

76%

Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk

70%

Winning margin

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+

13%

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals

73%

Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals

38%

Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals

14%

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

81%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

50%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)

40%

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peresvet Podolsk at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.29 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.45 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Peresvet Podolsk scores more

30%

level

24%

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

46%

Metallurg Lipetsk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Metallurg Lipetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff