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Metallurg Lipetsk vs Peresvet Podolsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
9/18/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk64%
×Draw20%
Peresvet Podolsk16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Lipetsk
2.14
Peresvet Podolsk
0.98

Metallurg Lipetsk creates 118% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 42 away

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.76
Peresvet Podolsk
1.24

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
0.72
Peresvet Podolsk
2.52

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par
Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Peresvet Podolsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw
84%
Metallurg Lipetsk or Peresvet Podolsk
80%
Draw or Peresvet Podolsk
36%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
40%
Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
88%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
63%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
36%
Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
62%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
26%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
80%
Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.72 · 54 matches

Peresvet Podolsk away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.76 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.14

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.24 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
64%
level
20%
Peresvet Podolsk scores more
16%

Metallurg Lipetsk at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Metallurg Lipetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Metallurg Lipetsk 2–1 Peresvet Podolsk

Metallurg Lipetsk beat Peresvet Podolsk 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Lipetsk.