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Peresvet Podolsk vs FK Spartak Tambov — Second League - Group 3 2020

Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
FK Spartak Tambov
FK Spartak Tambov
8/27/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Peresvet Podolsk28%
×Draw24%
FK Spartak Tambov48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peresvet Podolsk
1.21
FK Spartak Tambov
1.65

FK Spartak Tambov creates 36% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 63 away

creates per match

Peresvet Podolsk
1.29
FK Spartak Tambov
1.41

allows per match

Peresvet Podolsk
1.88
FK Spartak Tambov
1.13

finishing

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par
FK Spartak Tambov+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peresvet Podolsk ↓

FK Spartak Tambov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Peresvet Podolsk or draw
52%
Peresvet Podolsk or FK Spartak Tambov
76%
Draw or FK Spartak Tambov
72%

Winning margin

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
11%
FK Spartak Tambov wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
70%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
34%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
12%
FK Spartak Tambov 1+ goals
81%
FK Spartak Tambov 2+ goals
49%
FK Spartak Tambov 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
37%
FK Spartak Tambov (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peresvet Podolsk at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

FK Spartak Tambov away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.29 + FK Spartak Tambov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

FK Spartak Tambov attack 1.41 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Peresvet Podolsk scores more
28%
level
24%
FK Spartak Tambov scores more
48%

FK Spartak Tambov at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FK Spartak Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peresvet Podolsk vs FK Spartak Tambov

FK Spartak Tambov beat Peresvet Podolsk 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.