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FK Spartak Tambov vs Peresvet Podolsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

FK Spartak Tambov
FK Spartak Tambov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
11/5/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

FK Spartak Tambov57%
×Draw22%
Peresvet Podolsk21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Spartak Tambov
2.00
Peresvet Podolsk
1.14

FK Spartak Tambov creates 75% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 42 away

creates per match

FK Spartak Tambov
1.47
Peresvet Podolsk
1.24

allows per match

FK Spartak Tambov
1.03
Peresvet Podolsk
2.52

finishing

FK Spartak Tambov+0.00on par
Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Spartak Tambov ↓

Peresvet Podolsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FK Spartak Tambov or draw
79%
FK Spartak Tambov or Peresvet Podolsk
78%
Draw or Peresvet Podolsk
43%

Winning margin

FK Spartak Tambov wins by 2+
34%
Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FK Spartak Tambov 1+ goals
86%
FK Spartak Tambov 2+ goals
59%
FK Spartak Tambov 3+ goals
32%
Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
68%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
32%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FK Spartak Tambov (draw refunded)
73%
Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Spartak Tambov at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Peresvet Podolsk away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Spartak Tambov attack 1.47 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.00

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.24 + FK Spartak Tambov defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FK Spartak Tambov scores more
57%
level
22%
Peresvet Podolsk scores more
21%

FK Spartak Tambov at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FK Spartak Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: FK Spartak Tambov 1–0 Peresvet Podolsk

FK Spartak Tambov beat Peresvet Podolsk 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Tambov.