Peralada 1–1 Olot: Result & Stats

Peralada

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Olot

Y. Zayzoun 80'

Sergi Arranz 50'

11/21/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 12Estadio Municipal de Peralada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Peralada32%

×Draw28%

Olot40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeraladaExpected goals in this matchOlot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.26

Peralada

1.08

Olot

1.26

Olot creates 17% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 33 away

1.44

creates per match

1.52

1.00

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Peralada

1.44

Olot

1.52

allows per match

Peralada

1.00

Olot

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peralada+0.00on par

Olot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peralada ↓

Olot →

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Peralada or draw

60%

Peralada or Olot

72%

Draw or Olot

68%

Winning margin

Peralada wins by 2+

12%

Olot wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Peralada 1+ goals

66%

Peralada 2+ goals

29%

Peralada 3+ goals

10%

Olot 1+ goals

72%

Olot 2+ goals

36%

Olot 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Peralada (draw refunded)

44%

Olot (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peralada at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Olot away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peralada attack 1.44 + Olot defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.08

Olot attack 1.52 + Peralada defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Peralada scores more

32%

level

28%

Olot scores more

40%

Olot at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

Sergi Arranz

66'

Y. Zayzoun← Pol Gómez

76'

Eloi Zamorano← Ritxi

76'

Mohamed← Kilian Villaverde

76'

Eric Callis← Eloi Amagat

80'

Y. Zayzoun

82'

Carles Mas← Ferran López

86'

Z. El Idrissi← Xavi Ferrón

Peralada

Olot

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Héctor Simón

66'▲Y. Zayzoun←▼Pol Gómez

76'▲Eloi Zamorano←▼Ritxi

Peralada substitutes

ZayzounZamorano

Manager: Albert Carbó

76'▲Mohamed←▼Kilian Villaverde

76'▲Eric Callis←▼Eloi Amagat

82'▲Carles Mas←▼Ferran López

86'▲Z. El Idrissi←▼Xavi Ferrón

Olot substitutes

MohamedCallisMasIdrissi

Peralada 1 – 1 Olot

Peralada and Olot drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 21, 2021.

Goals: Sergi Arranz (50'), Y. Zayzoun (80').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Peralada in Peralada.

Peralada vs Olot — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Peralada 1 – 1 Olot