Olot 2–0 Peralada: Result & Stats

Olot

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Peralada

Marc Mas 90+2'

Pedro del Campo 43'

9/10/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 1Camp Municipal d'Olot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Olot48%

×Draw27%

Peralada25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlotExpected goals in this matchPeralada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.93

Olot

1.40

Peralada

0.93

Olot creates 51% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 110 away

1.76

creates per match

1.01

0.85

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Olot

1.76

Peralada

1.01

allows per match

Olot

0.85

Peralada

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olot+0.00on par

Peralada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olot ↓

Peralada →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Olot or draw

75%

Olot or Peralada

73%

Draw or Peralada

52%

Winning margin

Olot wins by 2+

23%

Peralada wins by 2+

Team goals

Olot 1+ goals

75%

Olot 2+ goals

41%

Olot 3+ goals

17%

Peralada 1+ goals

61%

Peralada 2+ goals

24%

Peralada 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Olot (draw refunded)

66%

Peralada (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olot at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Peralada away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.04 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olot attack 1.76 + Peralada defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.40

Peralada attack 1.01 + Olot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Olot scores more

48%

level

27%

Peralada scores more

25%

Olot at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Pedro del Campo

59'

Marc Padilla← Dani Gómez

59'

Junior← Kemo Cisse

65'

Marc Roquet← Guillem Terma

65'

Jandro← Marc Gelmà

72'

Espuña← Iker Vázquez

72'

Pol Cuatrecases← Llorenç Busquets

76'

Jordi Manzano← David Bigas

76'

Joan Maynau← Arnau Forés

80'

Marco Gil← Bruno Perone

90+2'

Marc Mas

Olot

Peralada

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Pedro Dólera

65'▲Marc Roquet←▼Guillem Terma

76'▲Jordi Manzano←▼David Bigas

76'▲Joan Maynau←▼Arnau Forés

80'▲Marco Gil←▼Bruno Perone

Olot substitutes

RoquetManzanoMaynauGil

Manager: Àlex Marsal

59'▲Marc Padilla←▼Dani Gómez

59'▲Junior←▼Kemo Cisse

65'▲Jandro←▼Marc Gelmà

72'▲Espuña←▼Iker Vázquez

72'▲Pol Cuatrecases←▼Llorenç Busquets

Peralada substitutes

PadillaJuniorJandroEspuñaCuatrecases

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Olot 2–0 Peralada

Olot beat Peralada 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 10, 2023.

Goals: Pedro del Campo (43'), Marc Mas (90+2').

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Olot in Olot.

Olot vs Peralada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Olot 2–0 Peralada