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Peralada vs Mollerussa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Peralada
Peralada
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Mollerussa
Mollerussa
3/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 27Estadio Municipal de Peralada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Peralada48%
×Draw26%
Mollerussa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peralada
1.50
Mollerussa
1.02

Peralada creates 47% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 51 away

creates per match

Peralada
1.44
Mollerussa
1.04

allows per match

Peralada
1.00
Mollerussa
1.55

finishing

Peralada+0.00on par
Mollerussa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peralada ↓

Mollerussa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Peralada or draw
74%
Peralada or Mollerussa
74%
Draw or Mollerussa
52%

Winning margin

Peralada wins by 2+
24%
Mollerussa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Peralada 1+ goals
78%
Peralada 2+ goals
44%
Peralada 3+ goals
19%
Mollerussa 1+ goals
64%
Mollerussa 2+ goals
27%
Mollerussa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Peralada (draw refunded)
65%
Mollerussa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peralada at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Mollerussa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peralada attack 1.44 + Mollerussa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mollerussa attack 1.04 + Peralada defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Peralada scores more
48%
level
26%
Mollerussa scores more
26%

Peralada at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Peralada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peralada vs Mollerussa

Mollerussa beat Peralada 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Peralada in Peralada.