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Mollerussa vs Peralada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Mollerussa
Mollerussa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Peralada
Peralada
5/11/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 34Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mollerussa38%
×Draw28%
Peralada34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mollerussa
1.23
Peralada
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 110 away

creates per match

Mollerussa
1.41
Peralada
1.01

allows per match

Mollerussa
1.29
Peralada
1.04

finishing

Mollerussa+0.00on par
Peralada+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mollerussa ↓

Peralada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mollerussa or draw
66%
Mollerussa or Peralada
72%
Draw or Peralada
62%

Winning margin

Mollerussa wins by 2+
16%
Peralada wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mollerussa 1+ goals
71%
Mollerussa 2+ goals
35%
Mollerussa 3+ goals
13%
Peralada 1+ goals
68%
Peralada 2+ goals
32%
Peralada 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mollerussa (draw refunded)
53%
Peralada (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mollerussa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

Peralada away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.04 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mollerussa attack 1.41 + Peralada defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Peralada attack 1.01 + Mollerussa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mollerussa scores more
38%
level
28%
Peralada scores more
34%

Mollerussa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mollerussa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Mollerussa 1–1 Peralada

Mollerussa and Peralada drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports in Mollerussa.