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Peralada vs Cornellà — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Peralada
Peralada
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cornellà
Cornellà
B. Carreras 60'
D. Gomez 55'
L. Busquets 53'
1/25/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 19Estadio Municipal de Peralada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Peralada42%
×Draw28%
Cornellà30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peralada
1.30
Cornellà
1.06

Peralada creates 23% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 18 away

creates per match

Peralada
1.44
Cornellà
1.11

allows per match

Peralada
1.00
Cornellà
1.17

finishing

Peralada+0.00on par
Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peralada ↓

Cornellà →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Peralada or draw
70%
Peralada or Cornellà
72%
Draw or Cornellà
58%

Winning margin

Peralada wins by 2+
19%
Cornellà wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Peralada 1+ goals
73%
Peralada 2+ goals
37%
Peralada 3+ goals
14%
Cornellà 1+ goals
65%
Cornellà 2+ goals
29%
Cornellà 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Peralada (draw refunded)
58%
Cornellà (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peralada at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Cornellà away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peralada attack 1.44 + Cornellà defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Cornellà attack 1.11 + Peralada defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Peralada scores more
42%
level
28%
Cornellà scores more
30%

Peralada at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Peralada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
L. Busquets
55'
D. Gomez
60'
B. Carreras
Peralada
Cornellà
Joan Tomás
Manager: Joan Tomás
Lopo
Manager: Lopo

Match Recap: Peralada vs Cornellà

Peralada beat Cornellà 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 25, 2026.

Goals: L. Busquets (53'), D. Gomez (55'), B. Carreras (60').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Peralada in Peralada.