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Cornellà vs Peralada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Cornellà
Cornellà
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Peralada
Peralada
L. dos Reis 35'
M. Omar 45', 14'
9/13/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2Nou Municipal de Cornella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cornellà50%
×Draw26%
Peralada24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cornellà
1.49
Peralada
0.95

Cornellà creates 57% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 110 away

creates per match

Cornellà
1.94
Peralada
1.01

allows per match

Cornellà
0.89
Peralada
1.04

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par
Peralada+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Peralada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw
76%
Cornellà or Peralada
74%
Draw or Peralada
50%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+
25%
Peralada wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals
77%
Cornellà 2+ goals
44%
Cornellà 3+ goals
19%
Peralada 1+ goals
61%
Peralada 2+ goals
25%
Peralada 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)
67%
Peralada (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Peralada away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.04 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.94 + Peralada defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.49

Peralada attack 1.01 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cornellà scores more
50%
level
26%
Peralada scores more
24%

Cornellà at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
M. Omar
35'
L. dos Reis
45'
M. Omar
Cornellà
Peralada
Lopo
Manager: Lopo
Joan Tomás
Manager: Joan Tomás

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Cornellà 1–2 Peralada

Peralada beat Cornellà 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 13, 2025.

Goals: M. Omar (14', 45'), L. dos Reis (35').

The match was played at Nou Municipal de Cornella in Cornella de Llobregat.