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Peralada vs Badalona II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Peralada
Peralada
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Badalona II
Badalona II
4/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 31Estadio Municipal de Peralada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Peralada44%
×Draw27%
Badalona II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peralada
1.36
Badalona II
1.06

Peralada creates 28% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 49 away

creates per match

Peralada
1.45
Badalona II
1.12

allows per match

Peralada
1.00
Badalona II
1.27

finishing

Peralada+0.00on par
Badalona II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peralada ↓

Badalona II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Peralada or draw
71%
Peralada or Badalona II
73%
Draw or Badalona II
56%

Winning margin

Peralada wins by 2+
20%
Badalona II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Peralada 1+ goals
74%
Peralada 2+ goals
39%
Peralada 3+ goals
16%
Badalona II 1+ goals
65%
Badalona II 2+ goals
29%
Badalona II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Peralada (draw refunded)
60%
Badalona II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peralada at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 110 matches

Badalona II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peralada attack 1.45 + Badalona II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Badalona II attack 1.12 + Peralada defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Peralada scores more
44%
level
27%
Badalona II scores more
29%

Peralada at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Peralada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peralada vs Badalona II

Peralada and Badalona II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Peralada in Peralada.