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Badalona II vs Peralada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Badalona II
Badalona II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Peralada
Peralada
12/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 14Estadi Municipal de Badalona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Badalona II43%
×Draw28%
Peralada29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badalona II
1.27
Peralada
1.00

Badalona II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 110 away

creates per match

Badalona II
1.49
Peralada
1.01

allows per match

Badalona II
1.00
Peralada
1.04

finishing

Badalona II+0.00on par
Peralada+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badalona II ↓

Peralada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Badalona II or draw
71%
Badalona II or Peralada
72%
Draw or Peralada
57%

Winning margin

Badalona II wins by 2+
19%
Peralada wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Badalona II 1+ goals
72%
Badalona II 2+ goals
36%
Badalona II 3+ goals
14%
Peralada 1+ goals
63%
Peralada 2+ goals
26%
Peralada 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Badalona II (draw refunded)
59%
Peralada (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badalona II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 49 matches

Peralada away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.04 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badalona II attack 1.49 + Peralada defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Peralada attack 1.01 + Badalona II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Badalona II scores more
43%
level
28%
Peralada scores more
29%

Badalona II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Badalona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Badalona II 1–1 Peralada

Badalona II and Peralada drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Badalona in Badalona.