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PEPO vs JäPS II — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

PEPO
PEPO
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
JäPS II
JäPS II
8/4/2024Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 17Kimpisen Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

PEPO72%
×Draw16%
JäPS II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEPO
2.62
JäPS II
1.00

PEPO creates 162% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 9 away

creates per match

PEPO
2.24
JäPS II
1.00

allows per match

PEPO
1.01
JäPS II
3.00

finishing

PEPO+0.00on par
JäPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEPO ↓

JäPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

PEPO or draw
88%
PEPO or JäPS II
84%
Draw or JäPS II
28%

Winning margin

PEPO wins by 2+
50%
JäPS II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

PEPO 1+ goals
93%
PEPO 2+ goals
73%
PEPO 3+ goals
48%
JäPS II 1+ goals
63%
JäPS II 2+ goals
26%
JäPS II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

PEPO (draw refunded)
85%
JäPS II (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEPO at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.01 · 68 matches

JäPS II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEPO attack 2.24 + JäPS II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.62

JäPS II attack 1.00 + PEPO defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

PEPO scores more
72%
level
16%
JäPS II scores more
12%

PEPO at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "PEPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PEPO 1 – 0 JäPS II

PEPO beat JäPS II 1-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on August 4, 2024.

The match was played at Kimpisen Urheilupuisto in Lappeenranta.