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JäPS II vs PEPO — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

JäPS II
JäPS II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
PEPO
PEPO
5/30/2024Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 8Lukion tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

JäPS II44%
×Draw23%
PEPO33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JäPS II
1.77
PEPO
1.49

JäPS II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 68 away

creates per match

JäPS II
1.78
PEPO
1.65

allows per match

JäPS II
1.33
PEPO
1.75

finishing

JäPS II+0.00on par
PEPO+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JäPS II ↓

PEPO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

JäPS II or draw
67%
JäPS II or PEPO
77%
Draw or PEPO
56%

Winning margin

JäPS II wins by 2+
24%
PEPO wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

JäPS II 1+ goals
83%
JäPS II 2+ goals
53%
JäPS II 3+ goals
26%
PEPO 1+ goals
77%
PEPO 2+ goals
44%
PEPO 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

JäPS II (draw refunded)
58%
PEPO (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JäPS II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

PEPO away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.75 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JäPS II attack 1.78 + PEPO defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.77

PEPO attack 1.65 + JäPS II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

JäPS II scores more
44%
level
23%
PEPO scores more
33%

JäPS II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "JäPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: JäPS II 1–0 PEPO

JäPS II beat PEPO 1-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on May 30, 2024.

The match was played at Lukion tekonurmi in Järvenpää.