Peoria 0–2 Chicago City: Result & Stats

Peoria

FT

0 – 2

Chicago City

6/4/2023

USL League Two · Central Conference - 6Shea Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Peoria51%

×Draw20%

Chicago City29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeoriaExpected goals in this matchChicago City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.73

Peoria

2.31

Chicago City

1.73

Peoria creates 34% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 19 away

2.68

creates per match

2.21

1.26

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Peoria

2.68

Chicago City

2.21

allows per match

Peoria

1.26

Chicago City

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peoria+0.00on par

Chicago City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peoria ↓

Chicago City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Peoria or draw

71%

Peoria or Chicago City

80%

Draw or Chicago City

49%

Winning margin

Peoria wins by 2+

31%

Chicago City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Peoria 1+ goals

90%

Peoria 2+ goals

67%

Peoria 3+ goals

40%

Chicago City 1+ goals

82%

Chicago City 2+ goals

52%

Chicago City 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Peoria (draw refunded)

63%

Chicago City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peoria at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Chicago City away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peoria attack 2.68 + Chicago City defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.31

Chicago City attack 2.21 + Peoria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Peoria scores more

51%

level

20%

Chicago City scores more

29%

Peoria at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Peoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff