Chicago City 0–2 Peoria: Result & Stats

Chicago City

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Peoria

6/26/2024

USL League Two · Central Conference - 12Hoyne Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Chicago City34%

×Draw22%

Peoria44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago CityExpected goals in this matchPeoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.94

Chicago City

1.69

Peoria

1.94

Peoria creates 15% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 31 away

2.24

creates per match

2.13

1.76

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Chicago City

2.24

Peoria

2.13

allows per match

Chicago City

1.76

Peoria

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago City+0.00on par

Peoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago City ↓

Peoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Chicago City or draw

56%

Chicago City or Peoria

78%

Draw or Peoria

66%

Winning margin

Chicago City wins by 2+

17%

Peoria wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Chicago City 1+ goals

82%

Chicago City 2+ goals

50%

Chicago City 3+ goals

24%

Peoria 1+ goals

86%

Peoria 2+ goals

58%

Peoria 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Chicago City (draw refunded)

44%

Peoria (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago City at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

Peoria away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago City attack 2.24 + Peoria defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.69

Peoria attack 2.13 + Chicago City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chicago City scores more

34%

level

22%

Peoria scores more

44%

Peoria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Peoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff