Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pénzügyőr vs Honvéd II — NB III - Southeast 2023

Pénzügyőr
Pénzügyőr
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Honvéd II
Honvéd II
3/2/2025NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 18Pénzügyőr SE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pénzügyőr33%
×Draw26%
Honvéd II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pénzügyőr
1.23
Honvéd II
1.41

Honvéd II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Pénzügyőr
0.87
Honvéd II
1.24

allows per match

Pénzügyőr
1.57
Honvéd II
1.58

finishing

Pénzügyőr+0.00on par
Honvéd II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pénzügyőr ↓

Honvéd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pénzügyőr or draw
59%
Pénzügyőr or Honvéd II
74%
Draw or Honvéd II
67%

Winning margin

Pénzügyőr wins by 2+
14%
Honvéd II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Pénzügyőr 1+ goals
71%
Pénzügyőr 2+ goals
35%
Pénzügyőr 3+ goals
13%
Honvéd II 1+ goals
76%
Honvéd II 2+ goals
41%
Honvéd II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pénzügyőr (draw refunded)
44%
Honvéd II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pénzügyőr at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Honvéd II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pénzügyőr attack 0.87 + Honvéd II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.23

Honvéd II attack 1.24 + Pénzügyőr defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pénzügyőr scores more
33%
level
26%
Honvéd II scores more
41%

Honvéd II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Honvéd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Pénzügyőr 1–0 Honvéd II

Pénzügyőr beat Honvéd II 1-0 in NB III - Southeast on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Pénzügyőr SE Sporttelep in Budapest.