Honvéd II 3–3 Pénzügyőr: Result & Stats

Honvéd II

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 0

Pénzügyőr

11/5/2023

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 14Honvéd MFA Utánpótlás Központ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Honvéd II49%

×Draw23%

Pénzügyőr28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Honvéd IIExpected goals in this matchPénzügyőr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.27

Honvéd II

1.77

Pénzügyőr

1.27

Honvéd II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.78

creates per match

1.20

1.33

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Honvéd II

1.78

Pénzügyőr

1.20

allows per match

Honvéd II

1.33

Pénzügyőr

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Honvéd II+0.00on par

Pénzügyőr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honvéd II ↓

Pénzügyőr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Honvéd II or draw

72%

Honvéd II or Pénzügyőr

77%

Draw or Pénzügyőr

51%

Winning margin

Honvéd II wins by 2+

27%

Pénzügyőr wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Honvéd II 1+ goals

83%

Honvéd II 2+ goals

53%

Honvéd II 3+ goals

26%

Pénzügyőr 1+ goals

72%

Pénzügyőr 2+ goals

36%

Pénzügyőr 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Honvéd II (draw refunded)

64%

Pénzügyőr (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honvéd II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Pénzügyőr away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honvéd II attack 1.78 + Pénzügyőr defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.77

Pénzügyőr attack 1.20 + Honvéd II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Honvéd II scores more

49%

level

23%

Pénzügyőr scores more

28%

Honvéd II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Honvéd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff